Week 12: Patriots v. Broncos

I will begin by saying that I am a Patriots fan, so therefore this will likely be a little biased, but these are my observations from the Patriots' first loss of the season.

1. Tom Brady is the best QB in the NFL

When Tom Brady took the field last night, he did so without three of his top four offensive play-makers.  Sure, Gronk was out there, but it's a lot easier to cover one guy when some other favorites are missing.  He was going up against the league's toughest defense in the snow... he's going to be doomed, right?  With any other quarterback in the league (maybe except Rodgers) this would be overwhelming and likely a sure loss, but Brady took lemons and made lemonade yet again, making some back up guys look really great, against a good defense.  I mean let's be honest here, if you were down three with 1:09 and one timeout left, is there any other quarterback in the league that you would rather have on your side than Tom Brady.  You can hate him all you want, but he is just so surgical in situations like that.  Unfortunately, they were stalled in overtime when Von Miller was just too much for the Patriots offensive line.

2. Denver's Defense is really good
Something that was talked about during the game, but not really highlighted for Denver was that they lost two of their key defensive starters early in the game.  This could have been a massive blow, but drive after drive, they managed to stall the Patriots' attack.  Other than the game tying drive, and the long catch and run to Bolden, the only other scores the Patriots created came from short field situations (Bad punt and Interception).  In a game where field position was critical, Denver won that battle.

3. Brock Osweiler looks like Edward Cullen

Thank you internet for making my life a lot easier.  But seriously, look at this!! Broncos were lucky it was a night game, because Brock's skin would've gotten all glittery...

4. Patriots need to get healthy
Last night provided a major illustration of how much trouble the Patriots are in if some of their key guys are out.  The Jamie Collins injury has hurt them overall in the last couple of weeks, but when that was paired with a Dont'a  Hightower knee strain last night, it was killer.  Jerod Mayo is still a valuable player when he plays limited snaps, but can't be that every down guy like he used to be.  Once Hightower left with the injury, the Patriots had a lot of trouble setting the edge and Anderson and Hillman just ran straight downhill.  Collins is one of the best pass defending/rushing linebackers in the league, and I can't help but think that with his health, Osweiler would have had much more difficulty getting the ball to Owen Daniels (who had a number of important wide open catches).
  
On the offensive side, Brady misses his quick hitter receivers in a big way... all three of them (Amendola, Edelman, and Lewis).  I believe that with just one of those guys, the offense would have clicked better last night, as the often found themselves unable to get out of the third and six jams that they are usually so good at.  The loss of Lewis a couple of weeks ago is a double edged sword, because his quickness and elusiveness in turn allow Blount to bring the boom on tired defenses.  James White just doesn't have it.  There were a couple of plays where White got the ball and had it been Lewis, there would have been a move and likely a missed tackle, but that is not the case with White.

5. Rob Gronkowski: Part 1
When Rob Gronkowski was writhing in pain with an apparent season ender at the end of the fourth quarter my stomach fell to my feet.  As we've seen in years past, when Gronk is out, the Patriots just are not as good.  I love to watch Gronk play, because he plays hard, he has fun, and he's really hard to stop.  On the first drive, two guys tried to body tackle him and he threw them off of him on his way to a nice touchdown.  For the rest of the game, Denver did the only thing that anyone who plays against Gronk knows how to do to take him down: torpedo his knees.  The injury hit aside, there were at least two other plays that I can recall where I cringed  and waited with bated breath hoping that he would pop back up (on those plays, he did).  I don't fault the defenders for going low to bring Gronk down, but I do fault the NFL for essentially promoting these hits with their stingy tackling rules.

Do we really need a repeat of this?

6. Rob Gronkowski: Part 2 
I think that it has become very clear over the course of this season that referees call the game differently when Gronk is involved.  There have been a number of plays this season where Brady throws to Gronk, and before the ball is close, the defender is draped on him like a bathrobe, he drops it, and the flags are nowhere to be seen.  I know football and basketball are different entities, but it is almost like the Shaq rules, where a defender would have to do something really drastic to have a penalty called against him.  In a league that strives for quality officiating (we'll deal with this in a minute), it doesn't seem fair to have these calls missed so frequently. 

This was ruled an offensive pass interference on Gronk

This was a no call a couple of years ago... HOW?!

Here are some interesting statistics from this season: Stat 1: There have been 69 offensive pass interference calls in the NFL this season. Stat 2: 9 of these have come against the Patriots. Fact: Rob Gronkowski has been called for OPI five times.  Stat 3: the next closest team has only been flagged for this offense 5 times.  That means Rob Gronkowski has matched the maximum OPI calls for any other team in the NFL.  I do not have any explanation for these stats, so I'll just leave them there and let you make your own conjectures as to why this may be. 

7. The Refs
I am burying this one deep in this blog, but there was nothing more frustrating on Sunday night than watching all of the 50/50 calls go against the Patriots.  I understand that refs are humans and humans make mistakes, but the officiating in the NFL recently just seems absolutely brutal.  I found a really good article  about the potential missed calls against the Patriots on plays that really swung the game (feel free to read that, I don't want to plagiarize).  Looking around the internet, something that I feel was blatantly missed (and obviously I can't find a gif) came when Brady threw an incomplete pass, and after it left his hands, one of the Denver defenders launched himself very high up on Brady, that I felt should have been a roughing the passer call, but the flags stayed in the pockets.  Finally, take a look at the youtube clip at the two huge interference calls against the Patriots, they look SO similar, but the Patriots ended up on the short side of the stick.

There has been a lot of coverage of the errors that the referees have made this season, so I don't want to harp on that, but the NFL needs to spend a lot of time in the offseason taking a look at hoe to make their rulebook more cut and dry so that every single play does not have to come under this scrutiny.  Is it really that bad if a player makes a little contact when they are going to make an offensive or defensive play.  When I watched games in years past, it was always clear to me what was and what wasn't a catch or pass interference or holding, and now everything is in this gray rules purgatory.  Just simplify it, NFL!

8. The Broncos played well
Coming into this game with a backup quarterback, it wouldn't be unheard of for a team to face an undefeated opponent and fold.  This was not the case for the Broncos, who stepped up to the challenge and kept themselves in the game and ended up hanging around long enough to win it.  I thought they had a good gameplan, and took full advantage of the Patriot injuries.

9. The Broncos won the game, the Patriots won the night
I think that Denver fans have the right to be excited about this win, but Patriots should feel good too.  They just went toe-to-toe with arguably the AFC's second best team playing with third string wide receivers and linebackers.  If the Patriots are able to get up to 95% health (knowing that Lewis is out for the rest of the year), they are still going to be as dangerous as ever.  If they do face the Broncos again, it will likely be with a healthy roster, which is significantly better in many ways than they were Sunday night.  I really hope they face each other again, when both teams have healthier rosters to see the outcome.

I have a lot more to say, but not enough time to put it down on here, so those are the thoughts I'll leave you with for now!

Until next time!

Noah's Crazy Sports Thoughts

Based on my blogs about sports, you guys all know that I am an avid sports fan.  I eat up sports and watch them when I can.  In college, I was fortunate enough to live with guys that also loved sports.  As expected, we consumed as much sport as our brains allowed (which meant it was on TV a lot).  During the games, I would often annoy my roommates by claiming that I could do what a specific athlete was doing or that I could step into the ring with Manny Pacquiao (which I know obviously isn't true, but it used to get the biggest rise out of Benny).  When I wasn't doing that, I would spitball rule changes or abstract strategies that I thought would improve the sports.  My roommates would laugh at me (mostly because they thought the ideas were stupid), but I have been left undeterred, so the following are things that I believe would make various sports more exciting!

NFL

1. Points off the Kickoff:
I am admittedly most proud of this idea, because I think it does a few things: 1. Increases the value of a kicker (who, sadly the NFL are trying to push out of the league) 2. Makes for higher scores and potential momentum changes 3. Increases the excitement of a game.  I believe that if the kicker is able to kick the ball through the uprights, their team should be awarded three points.  The receiving team would still be able retain the ball, the score would just be three points different.  For example, a team is down 10 with less than a minute left in the game.  They score a touchdown and kick the extra point.  In a normal game, viewers would probably stop watching and consider it a junk time td, because mathematically the lesser scoring team does not have enough time if the onside kick is not recovered.  Instead, with my proposed rule, the kicker has an undefended chance to kick a field goal through the uprights to tie the game.  If the try is successful, the recieving team has just under a minute to drive and try to win the game.  WOULDN'T THAT BE AWESOME!? COME ON!?

2. Increased value of long field goals
As you may be able to tell, I am a big proponent of things that can earn a field goal kicker more relevance on a football team.  My proposal here is that any kick between 50-59 yards is rewarded 4 points and anything 60 or above is worth 5 points.  Imagine that your team is down by three and you have fourth and 8 from about 56 yards away from the uprights.  A 56 yard kick is far from a guarantee!  Wouldn't it be so rewarding for the kicker (and us fans) if those kicks are just a little bit more valuable?

  If you disagree with me, just take a few minutes to watch the field goal compilation above.  Those kicks are soo long!

3. GO FOR IT ON FOURTH DOWN
I am not, by any means an advocate of a team going for a fourth down conversion every time.  Sometimes it makes more sense to punt the ball away and rely on your defense.  But in an increasingly more offense-centric league I think that if a team has the ball beyond their own 40 and are under 4th and 5, they should go for it.  I'm not saying go for it by running your running back into the wall of defenders (a play that I have seen fail far too many times), but go for it with play action plays and qb bootlegs.  Any average NFL team is capable of picking up 4 yards, so why does it become different when it is fourth down.1

 (However this play isn't the type of going for it that I am talking about)(What a stupid play)

4. Stop trying the end around and jet sweep 
This is a new soapbox that I am standing on this year I do not like these plays at all.  If you are unfamiliar with the terminology, it's that play where the wide reciever runs all the way across the field, receives a handoff and loses four yards.  Granted, there have been successful jet sweeps (see video below), but the majority of the time it is a fancy looking play that goes nowhere, because blockers can't get where they need to be and wide receivers don't have the trained patience to find the holes that running backs do.

This play is successful, because Tavon Austin is insanely fast and does a great job improvising when his original running lane is plugged up by the opposing defender.

5. Coach's Challenge the Referee
As I was typing this on Friday, this specific rule did not cross my mind.  But as I was watching the games yesterday, I remembered how much I favor a coach's ability to be able to throw a challenge flag to try to overturn a bad call that a referee has made.  Football is a sport where things happen really quickly, and no matter if it is being called by the best official in the world, there are going to be plays that they get wrong, it's human error.  Rather than listening to local fans whine about a blown call and placing the blame on a win or loss on the refs, why don't we give the coaches a chance to let the referees rectify their mistakes?  As a Patriots fan, I watched in dismay as Malcolm Butler was flagged incorrectly for a pass interference on Odell Beckham Jr., allowing the Giants to maintain their drive and move into field goal range.  If Belichick is able to throw the flag, that play gets overturned, the Giants likely punt the ball away, and the ending of that game potentially looks a lot different.2     

6. Get a new commissioner
I understand human error, but routinely getting everything wrong shouldn't go unpunished.  The fact that NFL owners don't hold him accountable for dragging their league through the mud baffles me.  I could definitely say more about this, but there have been enough words spilled about this to force you all to read more.

7. Mandatory shake-ups for commentating teams
There are exactly two pairs of NFL commentators that I enjoy listening to right now.  Burkhardt and Lynch and Michaels and Collinsworth (I don't have ESPN, so I can't judge their team).  Even though Chris Collinsworth says senseless things on occasion, I think he brings a lot of football knowledge to the table.  Other than that, I would love for any network to at least try out some new folks.  I watched the replay of the Colts-Saints super bowl from several years ago and had to listen to Nantz and Simms salivate over Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, just like they do now.  The fact that these guys are basically tenured into their positions as commentators often leaves the commentary stale.  So give some new people a try... I'm sure we can find someone better than Simms...

NBA
Create a four and a five point line
This rule change is pretty simple, we have a three point line, which is already a pretty long shot, but if we added a four and five point line that were even deeper shots, players who were sharpshooters (Steph Curry, for example) would be able to spread the floor even more than they already do to open up space in the half court.  The lines may lead to the demise of guys like Josh and J.R. Smith who would heave a lot of bad shots just to get more points (and likely miss), but it would definitely be an added layer of excitement.  Down by 20, NO PROBLEM, we just have to hit four five pointers and we're back in this thing.  Let's at least try it during an all-star game, it would certainly make that more exciting.

5 on 4
I will be the first to admit that this thought is not my brainchild, but I like the idea.  It is pretty basic: Rather than playing 5 on 5 in the half court, leave one of your weaker defenders (and stronger offensive players) to sit and wait by the other team's basket as an outlet for an easy lay-up.  The idea behind this is simple: the best NBA players shoot at an average of about 60% from the floor.  That means they miss four of every ten shots that they take.  If you can get two rebounds and kickouts for easy layups, that means less work that you are putting in going end to end.  Theoretically, if a team wanted to rest players, they could have a rotation of "floating players" so that they can defend hard for 24 seconds, then get a breather when they are not on the defensive end.  There are obvious critical flaws (i.e. one person will always be open on the other team), but if your team is fast enough and long enough, they should at least be able to partially contest every shot.  It may also bait bad shooters into shooting more (if you choose to defend their four best shooters very tighly, it leaves the one bad shooter open, and he'll have no choice but to shoot the ball).  Just typing this has made me want this to happen even more than I already did. (The strategy was also devised by the Sacramento Kings, who aren't exactly the poster child for good basketball ideas).  

Number decline regular Season Overtime
I am taking this idea straight from the NHL, but I think it could really improve NBA regular season.  I think it would be so cool if for each overtime, the teams lose a player (i.e. overtime 1: 4-4, overtime 2: 3-3, and so on, until you get down to one-on-one).  This would do a few things.  It would drastically decrease the congestion of the half court sets, opening up a whole new arsenal of plays coaches could draw up.  It would speed up the game.  It would bring on an almost street ball improvisation type feel, where players have to rely more on instincts and those who think and move quickly get a leg up on the competition.  If there ever was a game that went into quintuple overtime, how cool would it be to see each team's best player play a little one-on-one (or would it be the best player?)  Obviously, I would only want this to happen in the regular season to help add some excitement to the incredibly stale midseason, when most of the teams are on cruise control and the fans can feel it.  This would just spice things up a little bit.

 

Professional Soccer
No More Short Corners
I have watched and played a lot of soccer in my lifetime, and I really dislike short corners.  You know, the play where the corner kick taker passes the ball to a nearby teammate to potentially get a better cross angle, but by that time, the defender is already on them, forcing them to rebuild the attack they had built to win the corner.  This is not to say there isn't a time or place for this strategy.  For example, a team is in extra time with a one goal lead and they are trying to kill off some clock.  This would be an excellent time to use the short corner and hold possession.  However, I have seen this play fail far more often than it has succeeded and it negates the opportunity to get the ball on goal.  I think that part of the beauty of the corner kick is the chaos that occurs once the ball has been played in from the corner.  If the ball is fed into the box, a number of things could happen: 1. It could be headed or volleyed into the net, 2.  There could be a poor clearance leading to a chance on goal, 3.  There is a shot on goal that is saved, that produces a rebound, that leads to a goal, etc...  On the other hand, the short corner allows a defense to move their line forward, shrinking the field, making the game more predictable.   Just look how many of these are attempts at playing the short corner:

Overall though, I think soccer is a pretty pure sport and doesn't need too much fiddling with.  I am glad that they use goal line technology to make sure that they get goals and non-goals correct though.  That would've really benefitted the United States vs. Germany in 2002.

(Even now, I'm gutted for USA)

Youth Soccer
Please don't ban headers for youngsters
When the news came out last week that US Soccer has recommended that you training programs ban headers for players under 10, I was truly disappointed.  I understand the risks of headers and the serious nature of concussions, but this is not the answer to future prevention.  I believe that the concussion risk is much more prevalent among players who have not been taught how to properly attack the ball.  In my twenty years of playing soccer, I have seen very few concussions, and even fewer that stemmed from a player heading the soccer ball.  This action is an integral part of the game and it can change the outcome of games.  I think that there needs to be an emphasis on how to head and where on the head a player should be striking the ball, but banning heading would drastically decrease the momentum that U.S. soccer has made in becoming much more competitive on the world scale.  I don't have all the facts, but I do think that education, not expulsion, is the answer to the header concussion dilemma.  

NHL
Goalie-less powerplays
I have seen this happen exactly once.  The Bruins were down by a goal with about two minutes left, and the Flyers took a penalty leaving Boston a man advantage.  Being down a goal, the Bruins took the risk, pulled the goalie and played a 6-4 powerplay.  They passed it around brilliantly, the Flyers never touched the puck, and the Bruins scored to tie it up.  This idea is a little bit radical, and extremely risky, but I believe that teams in the NHL should consider playing 6-4 and pulling their goalies no matter what point it is at in a game (unless they are defending a lead).  With six skaters on the ice, that leaves an ample number of players to keep the puck in the opposing zone and even if there is a turnover, it creates a difficult shot from distance for the team on the penalty kill.  Obviously 6 players are much more difficult to defend than 5 and gives the team on the power play an even bigger advantage.  This should especially be used when a team is down to three men on the ice, as it would be truly overwhelming for the other team.

MLB
I am actually not an MLB fan, so I'll leave these opinions to the professionals.  But it is definitely not America's past time anymore.

These are all my thoughts for now.  When more come I'll update!

Until next time! 

1. This would inevitably devalue the punter (and those who read this know I want to add value to the place-kicker position.  I think there would still be some value, but I think an NFL team is capable of picking up 10 yards in four plays.
2. Other than Malcolm Butler, who played so well last night, I thought the Patriots secondary looked terrible.  Routinely getting beat or giving up bad pass interference penalties to no name wide receivers.  It reminded me of watching the Pats secondary of years past, which is not good.  Also, they need Jamie Collins to get healthy fast, because Freeny is not going to cut it as a full-time starter for the long-term.

Amy: A boyfriend's perspective.

Ever since I finished with camp, my writing has been very sporadic.  This has happened for a few reasons: 1. I have been busy at Milton (I've done a ton of subbing), 2. I enrolled in a gym (hacking away at the free time that I did have), and 3. I have really struggled to find the motivation and think of fresh new content.  I think that if I could do writing as a profession, I would be able to keep my posts fresh, long, and entertaining, but these things really take a lot of time and thought! (also, I do it for my enjoyment, not money).  The post that I am writing now is long overdue, may get a little sappy, and comes at a time where there isn't an outside factor (birthday, holiday, anniversary, etc.) that is motivating the blog other than the fact that she deserves it for being wonderful everyday!  There are so many things to say about Amy (and I know I won't cover it all here), so I will just start at the beginning!

The high school senior version of Amy and Noah

For those of you that are wondering, no, I would not consider Amy and me high school sweethearts.  I feel like that title is usually designated to the starting quarterback and head cheerleader that we've seen in all of chick flicks... ever.  We did go to high school together (and as we would come to find out as time went on, had quite a few classes together) but we ran in very different circles early on.  If you had asked me to tell me a little about Amy Johnston I probably would have said something like this: "she is one of the really smart twins who came from China or Vassalboro or something...".  If you had asked Amy to tell you a little bit about Noah, she probably would have said something like this: "who is Noah?" JUST KIDDING! In actuality (if she was being completely honest) it would probably sound something like this: "Noah plays soccer, hangs out with the popular kids... I'm not sure if he's very nice..."  Unfortunately, that was the rap I had in high school.  It wasn't until people got to to know me that they realized that I am a very decent human being.  Anyways, as I was saying, she had her priorities and I had mine.  It wasn't until senior year, when we happened to have the same homeroom that I really got to know her and realize that she was actually super cool.  To make a long courtship story short: I joined the swim team, got to know her more, we started talking a lot, I took her on a date to a punk rock show (which is totally not her type of music), we went to prom together, I ended up at Camp Bishopswood where she finally realized that I was worthwhile, and then started officially dating shortly after our freshman years of college began.  It has been nearly 8 years since I joined the swim season, and to quote Wicked, "my life has changed for the better" (Yeah, I typed it.....)  Here are a few reasons why we have (and will continue to) worked so well!

1. She is the epitome of kindness.
There are so many things that I could have started with here, but there is nothing that shines brighter when I think about Amy than her kind, selfless attitude.  She will always look out for the well-being of others (both human and animal) before her own needs. Amy has an absolutely innate need to please others and make sure that they are happy. When we host people at our apartment or spend time with friends, there is rarely an occasion when she doesn't follow up the visit with some variation of: "I hope they had a good time!" (of course they had a good time, because they are our friends, and you are the most gracious entertainer of all time!!)  When I am having down day, she goes out of her way to make the efforts to cheer me up (even when it isn't working).  With her friends and grad schoolmates, she never forgets a birthday, and always brings at least a card to help them celebrate.  

Her kindness and gentle heart shine most brightly when she is around animals.  Her eyes light up and she pets them so that they feel loved and cared for (she is incapable of watching an animal movie without crying). Above is a picture of a random cat named Mochie (I think) that she contently patted for at least 15 minutes.

2. She and I have shared interests

Snow day walk!

It seems kind of obvious, but relationships will not work if there aren't shared interests involved.  We listen to similar music, have similar clothing tastes (no I don't wear girl clothes, just shop in the same stores), enjoy shopping, like making people happy, don't mind having a quiet night in, appreciate each other for the little things, enjoy having a solid routine, like being outdoors.....the list could go on and on.  Last night we were watching Master of None, Aziz Ansari's new show on netflix (which is really great, by the way) and one of the characters was talking about how great it is to not have to worry about going out and making plans, and being content to just have a quiet night at home watching the latest critically acclaimed show.  As he was talking about it, Amy and I looked at each other and just laughed, because it sounded exactly like our average night, and that is just the way we like it!

3. She has a great sense of humor
While I will never tell this to her face, she actually has a pretty good sense of humor.  She loves to smile and laugh (especially at her own jokes).  The mood around our apartment is almost always light and cheery thanks to us having such compatible sensibilities in the humor department.  Many of Amy's jokes are ridiculous, but she tops them off with boisterous laughter at herself, at which point I can't help but laugh along.  My oldest brother Joe told me to find a girl that smiles and laughs a lot, and I am so thankful that I have found one!

4. She is a great travel companion!!

Washington D.C.

Seattle

Orono, ME

New York City

Bar Harbor

Philadelphia

Chicago

 I think the pictures really sum up how great it is to be able to travel with Amy!

5. She is the type of girl I can bring home to the family
When I was in the "looking for a girlfriend" stage of my life, this made a huge impact on my  courtship of young women (trying to be respectful and not sound like a creep).  I could not have hit a bigger home run than Amy.  Amy is like when a batter steps up to the plate and smashes it 500 the feet over the fence and out of the ball park.  Even early on, I could tell that my parents were big fans (mostly because Amy reflects a lot of the positive qualities that my Mom has).  I was amazed that she stuck around after the first time she met my Dad.  As she entered the kitchen, my Dad grabbed Sam and started dancing around with the dog singing "Once in love with Amy, Always in love with Amy"... somehow, Amy managed to laugh politely, and I got her away from that scene as quickly as possible.  When she wasn't scared away by crazy Dad, I knew that I should keep this one around.  Naturally, she and my mom hit it off instantly, both being simple Maine girls, that was an easy connection.  When it came time to meet the brothers, they knew how happy she made me, so I think they would have liked her well enough for that, but her quiet, kind nature won them over as well.

6. She is a great cook!
Unfortunately, the ability to cook is not present in everybody.  But luckily, Amy is a fantastic cook!  She is able to make a variety of different meals and keeps Isaiah and me well fed!  Just the other day she was proud of herself for being able to accurately estimate measurements instead of measuring them out in a cup or teaspoon (a sign of an experienced cook).  On a weekly basis, we enjoy anything from shrimp scampi to chicken enchiladas!

7. She has a great family.
Ever since I have entered the picture in Amy's life, her family has been nothing but kind and welcoming, which makes everything so much easier.  It certainly helped that I was able to meet her Dad before anything started (he coached the Waterville swim team), and he got to know me as a hard worker and fast learner in the pool.  Amy's family and my family have very similar sets of values, creating good and easy relationship between our families.  Her parents have always been willing to provide support for me and Amy when we have needed it.  They have always been very helpful and generous (especially when my cars were going through problems)!  Amy's twin sister Catherine is great as well, and is always trying to get me to listen to the new music she discovered or asking me for fantasy football advice (although she should give me advice, because her teams are tearing it up).  Coming from an active family, I thought it would be hard to find a family as active, but the Johnstons are always on the go.  Whether it is heading up to camp to renovate their new cabin or running half marathons or working in the garden or chopping down trees or swimming or doing yoga (I think you get the idea) they are phenomenally busy and active people.  Their activity clearly rubs off on Amy who makes a very grand effort to do some sort of workout every single day.

Amy and her Dad Post-half marathon!

 There is so much more that I could say, but this is where I will leave it for now.  I am so happy that she entered into my life eight years ago, because she is absolutely wonderful!

Until next time!!

Mimi and Papa

As the leaves start to turn, the weather cools down, and days grow a little bit shorter, it finally feels like fall has arrived in Massachusetts.  Although I will tell you that late spring into early summer is my favorite season, if I were to really sit down and think about it, fall has a very compelling argument.  Between birthdays and soccer (among other things) some of my best memories have come in the fall.  I am very fortunate to have a job at Milton Academy that allows me to spend a lot of time enjoying the outdoors (which becomes less enjoyable in the winter)!  I have gotten to experience and appreciate the leaves changing and the air becoming crisp and unleashing the unmistakeable scent of fall.  Next to our playground, a fence separates us from several Milton athletics fields, and during the after school hours, several of the kids sit and watch, as Milton's JV boys soccer team practices each day.  As I watch with them, it brings me back to my days in high school, where I would sit through classes, eagerly awaiting practice or games.  Then I start to think about games, and how for the 16-18 games of the season I was doing something that I was really good at, and looked up to as a leader (looking back, I could've done a better job in this avenue).  In risking vanity, I also loved game-day, because it gave me a chance to showcase the skills that I had spent so much time working on.  I always got a little boost and played a little harder as the crowd got bigger.  I have so much to say and so many great memories from my years playing high school soccer, but this particular blog is about two fans who attended (almost) all of my games: my Mimi and Papa.

Mimi and Papa are my grandparents on my mom's side.  For many years of my life, our family (Spoffords) have lived very close, thus I have been fortunate to be able to spend a lot of time with them.  It would be really difficult to find two people as loving as kind as my Mimi and Papa are.  They have lived truly remarkable lives.  There are so many things that I could say and want to say, but I will stick to the effect they have had on my life in particular.

I will go back to soccer, because that is where I began.  For Mimi and Papa, soccer was not even close to their radar.  They had limited familiarity with it, as my Uncle Andy did some coaching, but other than that, it was not something that they had been exposed to much growing up (which makes sense based on the generations that they were born into).  Obviously, soccer played a major role in the development of the Spofford family.  When we moved back to Maine, we all (minus Isaiah) were very active in the Waterville soccer world (between travel teams and high school teams).  Being active and having games nearby, meant that there would be opportunity to local family to come and watch us play.  It was no surprise that shortly after we began to play, Mimi and Papa began to make their way over to watch us play.  They may not have known much about the game, but their constant support drew them across the bridge.  It wasn't long before Papa took a real liking to the game.  He enjoyed the constant back and forth and liquidity with which the game is played.  However, he did not have the greatest understanding of the game.  Naturally, his engineering background kicked in, and he wanted to gain a deeper understanding of the game (especially if he was going to come to a lot of games).  He began to find books about the strategies and tactics of soccer, and before long he became quite soccer literate.  For the first few years, they came to games once in a while, but as time went on, they could be spotted in the folding lawn chairs at almost every game.  It was always uplifting for me to see them at games, showing constant support.  I would make sure to call them up the night before my home games to remind them what time the game was, so they could come and watch.  Typically for away games they didn't travel, unless it was in a neighboring town, but I remember seeing them on the sideline of my very last game at Brunswick and being filled with pride to have them as my grandparents.

Their love and family values are very clearly reflected in the proximity with which their children live to them.  Having six children, one would assume that the family moved apart and now lives all over the country.  However, with the Dumonts, that is not the case, with the furthest family on three hours away (and the rest no more than 25 minutes).  The Dumont kids have always visited regularly, keeping their family tight knit and showing the grandchildren true family values.  It is clear when we are all together during the holidays, that the Dumont kids had a great childhood and that they love and respect Mimi and Papa to no end.  The house is filled with warmth, smiles, and hilarious stories from days of the past. 

For me, going to Mimi and Papa's house has always been something that I look forward to with great joy, and that has a lot to do with the people who built it (Mimi and Papa of course).  As a little kid, I was always greeted with warm smiles and hugs, then offered candy (usually a Werther's or Twizzlers) and a soda.  I mean what kind of kid wouldn't love a place filled with candy and soda?!  They really knew the fast track into our hearts.  After that, the kids (whether it was just the boys or cousins as well) would typically disappear into the basement to play indoor soccer or with the toys that they had saved since their children were little.  If we ever needed anything, Mimi and Papa were always around to help.  When we lived in Mississippi, we would come up to Maine in the summers, and Mimi and Papa would graciously offer us their spare bedrooms and be the most wonderful hosts.  When I was sick, Mom and Dad would drop me off at Mimi and Papa's where they would look after me and make sure I was okay.  On teacher's workshop days, Isaiah and I would go in the morning and Mimi made us two minute eggs and toast (which are always delicious).  As I got older, I would go over there to watch soccer games on TV with Papa and help him out with chores around the yard.  Papa had a system for every chore that we did (which always made them a little longer, but made sure that the task was done right).

One of my favorite traditions with Mimi and Papa is our annual Christmas Eve dinner, in which we host them for a wonderful tourtiere pie feast put on by my Mom.  Every year at Christmas time, they come over to our house and eat and open their presents from us, and it's always a wonderful time for us and them.  Usually at some point in the night, we play guitar and sing Christmas carols, and Mimi and Papa's eyes light up as they join in on the songs and sing along.  These are some pictures over the last few years:

When I was in high school, my AP United States History teacher assigned the class a 10 page paper about a topic of our choosing, with the only stipulation being that it had to be related to the history of Maine.  I chose to write about Flagstaff, ME, a town that was flooded in an effort to create a reservoir and now sits at the bottom of Flagstaff Lake.  I thought there would be tons of material about it, (I mean a residents were moved and a town was flooded!) but there turned out to be a lot less than I had expected.  I eventually made contact with a man who was once a resident of Flagstaff, and moved to nearby Stratton.  My Papa used to work on the roads out that way, so me, my mom, Mimi and Papa took the trip out so that I could meet my primary source!  In high school, like today, I am quite shy around new people, so it was a good thing Papa came along.  He and the man talked for at least an hour about all things Maine.  I got SO much information!
I am so thankful to have such wonderful grandparents, who were so active in my upbringing!  They are true models of good family values, hard workers, and always encourage us to do our best.  They have spent years worrying about their own children and grandchildren's well-being and always act in the best interest of their family.  In turn, they are showered by love and devotion from the children, in-laws, and grandchildren.  I have so much more that I could say about Mimi and Papa (and likely will in a later post!)  I will close in saying Thank you to the best Grandparents a kid could have!!

-until next time!  

A Blog on Josh: the Second Spofford brother

Let me just get one thing out of the way very quickly: this post is long overdue!  As most of you know, I have three brothers; Joe, Josh, and Isaiah.  I wrote Joe a blog on his birthday and Isaiah a blog prior to his knee surgery in March.  I have been waiting for a major life event for Josh, but I was at camp on his birthday and wasn't able to do it then.  Well, finally, I am digging some time out  to talk a little bit about the second of the four boys.

A True American

I typed the opening paragraph and then sat for thirty minutes trying to think of where I wanted to start talking about Josh.  Not because I don't have anything to say, but mostly because there are so many things that I want to say about Josh.  I think that rather than stick to my usual format, I will be jumping around a little bit to moments in my life that I feel provide a good illustration of Josh from my perspective.

I'm going to begin by talking about soccer.  Josh probably played the biggest direct role in my improvement in soccer.  While Joe was a role model for my play, Josh and I spent a lot of time working on my individual skills to make me a more effective player.  We often drove to Webber Field or Colby, and spent hours playing one-on-one, shooting free kicks, and finishing and serving crosses.  Prior to my high school days, Josh, Joe, and I played World Cup in the back yard.  Joe played goalie while Josh and I played one-on-one.  I am sure that Josh wasn't going 100% (unless I was really good), but he challenged me enough to keep the games close and push me to be strong on the ball and creative with my touches.  He even made the effort to include me on his indoor soccer team, even though I was in eighth grade and the rest of the team consisted of high school seniors.  I never said it in these direct words, but it meant so much to me, and obviously made me a better player.  I will note that I was one of the team's lead scorers.  As I got older, I remember how important it was to me when he would show up to watch me play in my varsity games.  I always kept an ear out for him coaching me up from the fan section, urging me to go by defenders on my own and challenging me to do better.

I don't mean to brag in saying that the Spofford boys are more skilled in most sports than the average family of boys.  We played all different sports all the time, and the practice paid off.  None of us devoted a ton of our time playing organized basketball, but we did spend countless hours in the driveway playing two-on-two.  Josh has always been my teammate.  Unfortunately for us, our opponents, Isaiah and Joe, are definitely more gifted in the athleticism department.  When I was younger, Josh was always left with the tall task of guarding Joe (who is hyper-competitive and rarely misses, especially when someone is right in his face).
Typical games usually go something like this:

• Josh and I jump out to an early lead as Josh sinks a couple of shots from the right side. (Keeping in mind this is make-it-take-it)
• After the first couple of makes, we miss a shot and its snatched up by Joe.
• Joe hits a couple of similar shots in a row with Josh right in his shirt (Josh begins getting frustrated)
• Joe fakes a drive, pulling me off of Isaiah, kicks to Isaiah, Zay makes an easy lay-up.        Score: 3-2
• Joe pulls up, misses one, I get the rebound
• I take it out to the point, pull up and make it
• I check it up with Isaiah, drive towards the hoop-- Josh looks wide open, so I throw a pass to him.  Somehow, Joe comes out of nowhere and snatches up the pass.  Back on defense we go. Josh and I haven't been doing much conditioning.  It is at this point we start to feel the fatigue.
• Joe gets it, passes to Isaiah, who does his signature sprint across the face of the basket and do a sideways fade (it is a terrible looking shot, but it's impossible to block and goes in more often than not)-- He makes it Score: 4-3
• Joe takes the ball out, makes two more shots in Josh's face (Josh's frustration level is a code  red-- Joe better not make his next shot) Score: 6-3
• Joe passes to Isaiah who pulls up-- the shot is not good-- an airball.  Josh and I breathe a sigh of relief, when suddenly Joe comes out of nowhere, grabs the ball out of the air, and slams it home (keep in mind we're playing on an 8'5" hoop-- Makes us feel like NBA players)
• Josh punts the ball-- Noah goes to get the ball and the game starts again. Score 7-3.
• Isaiah starts with the ball, passes to Joe who pulls up, but misses this time.  Josh gets the rebound.
• I drive to the basket, past Isaiah, makes a lay-up
• I drive, but run into Joe as a help defender.  I kick out to Josh who pulls up from mid-range and makes it! Score 7-5
• I check it up with Isaiah and pull up from the top of the key-- Score 7-6
• I pass the ball to Josh, he pulls up for the shot, but is blocked by Joe, who secures the ball, takes it out, shoots the mid-range jumper and sinks it (Josh begins getting heated again).  
• I make the defensive switch onto Joe because Josh is getting frustrated
• Joe rattles off two more jumpers in my face Score 10-6
• Joe passes to Isaiah, who tries to put it up over Josh, but is blocked.  I grab the ball, put it up, miss, but Josh grabs the rebound and lays it in Score 10-7
• Josh takes it out, I cut across the basket, catch the pass from Josh and turn it into a fade-away jumper-- I make it Score 10-8
• Joe begins to sense a comeback, so he switches onto me to lock me out.  Josh puts up a shot, but is off slightly, rebounded by Isaiah.  (At this point, Josh and I are very winded... we have to work out more...)
• Joe demands the ball from Isaiah and sinks the game winner in Josh's face.
• Josh grabs the ball and punts it again.
• Joe asks if we want to play another... Josh immediately says NO! 
• We go inside.

Sometimes the games swing in our favor, but that is about what it looks like!

Josh and Isaiah prior to Josh's first homecoming?

As a younger brother, I always wanted to be hanging out with my older brothers and be one of the guys.  With Joe being about six years older than me, the age gap was a little bit too great and I would often be left out of his plans (I obviously don't blame him for that... It makes total sense).  However, Josh (being a little closer in age) was much more accommodating in having me around.  He always kept me in the loop about what he and his friends were up to and how he was doing in the girl world, which really allowed me to feel included.  I can remember spending a lot of time with him while he sat on the computer listening to music and talked to people on AIM (AOL Instant Messenger for all you youngsters).  Although I didn't always go out to hang out with him and his friends, I always felt like I was in the loop (I was so cool!)  I can vividly remember when he taught me how to fast-dance (yeah, fast-dance... this blog is PG!) when I was in middle school (probably a little early for that).  If I am looking for life advice, Josh is always the first brother I turn to, because he was always there to give me advice when I was younger.  I will digress for just a second to point out a piece of advice Joe gave me that has stuck with me: "Noah, make sure to find a girl that laughs and smiles a lot!" (I think I did a pretty good job of that with Amy). 

So dapper!

Out of the four of us, there is no doubt or argument that Josh is and has always been the most stylish.  He (like myself) dedicates a decent budget towards shopping for new clothes and keeping up with the most recent styles.  I often find myself trying to imitate his style choices and it has helped me dress very well indeed!

When Josh is home on vacation, you will most often find him cozied up the recliner reading on his Kindle.  Josh has read so many books ranging from classics to modern day pop-culture reads.  He is definitely the most well-read Spofford.  He is also the most introspective of the Spoffords.  When he was young, he was often "in the clouds" as my Dad would say.  That imagination has allowed him to think critically and challenge normal conventions, which pushes people around him to keep up to his intellectual level and meet his standards (a quality that I am sure serves him well in the professional world).  This has been a double edged sword, because he has the capacity to do so many things, but has yet to decide the exact direction he wants to take these skills in.  He has thought about becoming a lawyer, nurse, librarian, or just furthering his degree in the field he is currently in.  When he commits, I am positive he will be extremely successful.

Josh and Sara on their most recent Maine trip

Josh, like the rest of my family, has been a blessing in my life and I'm so happy that he is one of my brothers.  He is a kind, compassionate dude with a real zeal for enjoying life in the here and now... a quality that I admire.  So even though it's a little late, HAPPY BIRTHDAY JOSH!! Hope you have an amazing, fruitful year!

The League Suite K: Fantasy Football 2015-16

The League: Suite K

Five years ago, I had the very good fortune to move into a Suite with seven of my best friends (see above).  I have written a little bit about the guys of Suite K, but that doesn't begin to express how grateful I am to have such a great group of friends!  One thing that brought us close back in the day was our affinity for sports, especially when it came to Fantasy Football.  Prior to our move in day we figured out that it made sense to all pitch in to buy a tv (see above) for our common room, then at the end of the year whoever won the league would have the privilege of taking it home.  For a group of college kids participating in our first competitive Fantasy league, we were pretty well organized (big credit to Josh, our commish).  Since that first season, our friendships have obviously continued, and our league is still as competitve as ever (four different winners in four seasons).  After leaving college, we have made sure to be in the same place for draft day.  The past two years we have rented places near golf courses and made a weekend out of it.  It is a real testament to our friendship that we can all meet up and still enjoy ourselves like no time has gone by.  Now I'll get to it, the 2015 Suite K Fantasy Preview.

History:
2011: 1st: The Champions (Kyle), 2nd: Gridiron Brothel (Ebb), 3rd: Washington Sentinels (Josh)
2012: 1st: Standish Mustangs (Kevin), 2nd: Washington Sentinels (Josh), 3rd: Foster the People (Ben)
2013: 1st: Defying Logic (Nick), 2nd: Julio's Foot (Noah), 3rd: Charles in Charge (Ben)
2014: 1st: Taco CHAMP (Taco/Rob), 2nd: Gridiron Brothel (Ebb), 3rd: Washington Sentinels (Josh)
Team Composition: 
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, W/R/T, K, DEF + 6 Bench

Ben:
Roster:
QB: Tony Romo
RB: Joseph Randle
RB: Tre Mason
WR: Antonio Brown
WR: Dez Bryant
WR: Julian Edelman
TE: Zach Ertz
W/R/T: Brandin Cooks
DEF: New York Jets
K: Cody Parkey
Bench: Todd Gurley, Duke Johnson Jr., Le'veon Bell, Victor Cruz, Phillip Rivers, John Brown

My Take: His top two wide receivers could potentially be the top Wide Receivers in the League this year, which is scary.  Ben has historically put together really solid teams using strong a strong core of running backs (his philosophy has obviously changed a little bit).  Once Bell comes back from his suspension, I expect him to be as explosive and dangerous as he was last year.  Brandin Cooks looked like a world beater in his small sample size last year and preseason this year.  Ben clearly took some chances on high upside running backs, but if they pan out, this team will be hard to beat! 

Zay's Hot Take: "I don't know... It's okay... there are a lot of Cowboys on it."

Ebb:
Roster:
QB: Ben Roethlisberger
RB: Jamaal Charles
RB: Jeremy Hill
WR: Desean Jackson
WR: AJ Green
WR: Andre Johnson
TE: Rob Gronkowski
W/R/T: Andre Ellington
DEF: Philadelphia
K: Matt Prater
Bench: Brandon Lafell, Michael Floyd, Roddy White, Ryan Matthews, Charles Simms, Dwayne Allen

My take:  Ebb will clearly get a lot of points between his running backs this year, Charles and Hill should have huge years, just like they have in the past few years.  Gronk is head and shoulders better than every other TE if he can stay healthy which is a huge advantage.  If I had this roster, I would definitely be a little worried about my WRs and bench depth.  AJ Green is sneaky good every year (especially since its a contract year).  The other two starters have huge upside, but had sub-standard years last year.  It will be interesting to see if the talent shines through with this lineup.

Zay's Hot Take: "Their pretty good... If Roddy White and Ryan Matthews have good years he could make it pretty far............ and if Ben Roethlisberger doesn't *poop* the bed"

Josh: 
Roster:
QB: Eli Manning
RB: Marshawn Lynch
RB: Mark Ingram
WR: Calvin Johnson
WR: Alshon Jeffery
WR: TY Hilton
TE: Owen Daniels
W/R/T: Justin Forsett
DEF: Carolina
K: Mason Crosby
Bench: Matt Stafford, Golden Tate, Gio Bernard, Mike Wallace, Alfred Blue, Devonta Freeman

My take: Josh is Mr. Consistency in this league.  He is perennially in the playoffs and this year's roster composition looks solid yet again.  There is a good balance of talent between positions with players who could have huge years.  If Calvin and Alshon are healthy this year, Josh's team will definitely be a contender.  I have historically stayed away from Lynch year-to-year, but every year he comes back and Beast Modes his fantasy teams into contention.  Golden Tate is a must own for Calvin owners (especially if he gets hurt).  I would be a little worried about running back depth on the bench, but the starters are strong.

Zay's Hot Take: "Dannggg... he's got his wideouts on lock, and Marshawn... this looks like a team that going to be carried by their wideouts"

Kevin
Roster:
QB: Drew Brees
RB: CJ Anderson
RB: Joique Bell
WR: Emanuel Sanders
WR: DeAndre Hopkins
WR: Torrey Smith
TE: Jason Witten
W/R/T: Jarvis Landry
DEF: Buffalo
K: Adam Vinatieri
Bench: Eric Decker, Arian Foster, CJ Spiller, Antonio Gates, LeGarrette Blount, Cam Newton

My Take: On draft day, Kevin was without a doubt in the worst shape of all of us this year.  With that said, I think he had one of his better drafts this year.  It seems he was determined to have a bench of players that were unavailable week one, but clearly a lot of upside on the bench.  I think that Hopkins is going to have a monster year this year, being the only viable receiving option on the Texans.  I will be curious to see how the Broncos perform this year (it's hard not to wonder about Peyton's health after the second half of last season).  I would be worried about Jason Witten and Antonio Gates this year, as they are getting older and could be overtaken by younger TE's this year.

Zay's Hot Take: "They look okay... I don't know about having Torrey Smith in, he hasn't been very good in the last couple of years... It'll help if Arian Foster comes back though."

Kyle
Roster:
QB: Andrew Luck
RB: DeMarco Murray
RB: Alfred Morris
WR: Amari Cooper
WR: Steve Smith Sr.
WR: Keenan Allen
TE: Greg Olsen
W/R/T: Latavius Murray
DEF: Seattle
K: Dan Bailey
Bench: Jordy Nelson, Frank Gore, Chris Ivory, Vincent Jackson, Tom Brady, Reggie Wayne

My Take: Kyle took a huge hit with the Jordy Nelson ACL injury.  His team is still in pretty good shape, led by very strong running backs.  I think Amari Cooper will be the best rookie receiver in the league this year, which could be massive.  I would be worried about receiever depth, especially if Allen is a dud like he was last year, but the running back depth could lead to some beneficial trades. I am interested to see how Steve Smith will step up in his self-proclaimed final season.


Zay's Hot Take: "He's got good QB's, he could use that as leverage.  Hopefully Amari Cooper has a big year, because the rest of his wide receivers are not the best in the game... He has a lineup of aging wide receivers."

Nick
Roster:
QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Matt Forte
RB: Tevin Coleman
WR: Demaryius Thomas
WR: Sammy Watkins
WR: Larry Fitzgerald
TE: Travis Kelce
W/R/T: Melvin Gordon
DEF: Green Bay
K: Stephen "Beaver" Gostkowski
Bench: Ameer Abdullah, Kenny Stills, Darren McFadden, Matt Ryan, Anquan Boldin, Dion Lewis

My Take:  Any fantasy team with Aaron Rodgers can bank on a few games that he'll put the team on his back.  I think that Nick took a lot of chances that could pan out and be great or be not so great.  He lost Kelvin Benjamin to an ACL tear at the beginning of the season which was a really big his to his wide receievers.  If his rookie running backs thrive in starting roles, Nick will be competitive.  If not, he'll probably have to be a savvy waiver wire artist.

Zay's Hot Take: "Pretty balanced team, if Aaron Rodgers can make his receivers play for him.  He should be...... okay"

Noah
Roster:
QB: Russell Wilson
RB: Lamar Miller
RB: Jonathan Stewart
WR: Mike Evans
WR: Jeremy Maclin
WR: Julio Jones
TE: Jimmy Graham
W/R/T: Jordan Matthews
DEF: Houston
K: Steven Hauschka
Bench: Rashad Jennings, Martavis Bryant, Davante Adams, Eddie Royal, Carlos Hyde, Allen Robinson

My Take: To be honest, I was not too happy with my roster on draft day.  After further examination, I have talked myself into this lineup.  I think I have a strong group of receivers with plenty of depth at that position.  I am a little worried about my running backs, who could be good (but also could be terrible).  I am hopeful that Graham will stay healthy and give me a competitive advantage over my opponents at that position!

Zay's Hot Take: "You have a good receiving corps... and with Lamar Miller's carry... rate up this season, it should be a strong showing."

Taco 
Roster:
QB: Peyton Manning
RB: Adrian Peterson
RB: Eddie Lacy
WR: Nelson Agholor
WR: Randall Cobb
WR: Odell Beckham Jr.
TE: Martellus Bennett
W/R/T: LeSean McCoy
DEF: Arizona
K: Justin Tucker
Bench: Stevie Johnson, TJ Yeldon, Pierre Garcon, Isaiah Crowell,  Brandon Marshall, Doug Martin

My take:  There's only so much you can say about this roster.  It should be illegal to have a roster this good!  Top to bottom (minus TE) it is so good.  He could potentially have the top 2 fantasy RB's and WR's in the same season.  He absolutely has the best chance to be the first one to repeat as champ of the League Suite K. (Thank goodness I only play him once this season)

Zay's Hot Take: "This team is nasty... WHAT!?.... I'd say this is the best looking team in the league... on paper."

Here's to a great Fantasy Season!

Until next time!!

NFL 2015-16 Preview: AFC East

I know "they" call baseball America's past time, but let's be real, everyone knows that America is actually captivated by the NFL.  No matter how many mistakes the players and the commissioner make off the field, this organization is a cash cow that continues to grow in value and in viewership.  Whether we are watching because we have a stake in a fantasy league (or five), we love the game, or we enjoy the company and delicious snacks, Sundays are football days.  Now, there are only two weeks until the Patriots kick off against the Steelers and I am absolutely stoked.  Since leaving camp, I have stayed up to date with Hard Knocks (this year it's about the Texans, who are basically coached by the guys who have left New England), I've watched a least a little bit of nearly all of the preseason games (which is brutal at times), and I've even finished watching Ballers (a show starring Dwayne "the Rock" Johnson as a former NFL player turned financial manager on HBO).1    
With all that said, I am stoked for kick-off, and this is my preview on how things will play out this year!2
AFC EAST:

Overall: As with most years in the past decade and a half, it looks like this is the Patriots division to lose.  However, that statement is not to discount the other teams in this division, who all added significant pieces to their puzzles.  In the off-season, there were some coaching changes, some major player acquisitions, and some minor signings, but it is clear that the other three teams just want to find a way to finally dethrone the Patriots dynasty.
1. New England Patriots (Last year: 12-4, 4-2 divisional, Super Bowl Champs)
It is hard to pick against the New England Patriots to win the division.  During the off-season, they lost Vince Wilfork, Brandon Browner, Shane Vereen, Kyle Arrington, Alfonso Dennard, and most painfully Darelle Revis.  It is clear that the secondary is not nearly as strong as it was last year.  Fans will likely see a lot more zone coverage, as the Pats no longer have Revis and Browner as shut down man-to-man corners.  To make up for that, they will rely on a dominant front seven to make sure that quarterbacks aren't given as much time to get rid of the ball and force bad decisions.  On the offensive side, a lot of the early success will be dependent on the ultimate decision on the Deflategate decision and whether or not Brady's suspension is upheld.  There have been more than enough words spilled about that, so the only thing I will say is that the world needs to do a better job coming up with scandal titles... Watergate was an actual name of a place.  I believe that there are enough offensive weapons to allow Garoppolo to have success, but he is certainly no Tom Brady just yet.

As long as Rob Gronkowski stays healthy and the offensive line does not regress their well-oiled machine should roll on.  I would look for Brandon LaFell and Danny Amendola to fill larger roles this year as long as they can keep the same form that they had during last year's playoff run.
Prediction: 13-3, 5-1 Divisional

2. Buffalo Bills  (Last Year: 9-7, 4-2 Divisional)
After doing a lot of flip-flopping about who I think would get the number two spot in the AFC East, I have come to the conclusion that the Bills are a very likely candidate.  Their major offseason aqcuisitions this year were fiery head coach Rex Ryan and slippery running back LeSean McCoy.  Both of whom come to the team with very impressive resumes.  Despite being a Patriots fan (admittedly jumping on the bandwagon in the early 2000's) I recognize that Rex Ryan is without a doubt one of the best coaches in the NFL, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.  He is a defensive whiz and has fallen into the hands of a team with an absolutely stifling defense who ranked first in opponents average scoring per drive last year.  I can only imagine that they are just going to get better this year.  Their defensive line is arguably the best in football anchored by Kyle Williams, Marcell Dareus, and former number one pick Mario Williams, expect them to get to opposing quarterbacks a lot! 

If the offensive side of the ball is able to score some points, this team will definitely win some ball games.  Buffalo's big question mark on the offensive side of the ball will definitely be the the quarterback.  Ryan announced a couple of days ago that Tyrod Taylor will be the starter for the Bills for Week One.  Taylor has extremely limited time on the field in the NFL after having spent the last two years backing up Joe Flacco.  This certainly doesn't mean he can't play (Flacco is a really good quarterback).  The Bills will definitely look to use Taylor's threat of running to open up space for playmakers Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy and not become a one dimensional offense.  As I type this, I believe that I am talking myself into the Bills possibly making the playoffs this year.  A point of intrigue will be the use of Percy Harvin, who has a crazy good upside if he can get into a system that is able to utilize him correctly.
Prediction: 11-5, Divisional 4-2 

3. Miami Dolphins (Last year: 8-8, 3-3 Divisional)
The Miami Dolphins used their off season to drop a big wad of cash on defensive stalwart Ndamukong Suh, who has spent his early career sacking quarterbacks (before and after the whistle).

 Their below average defense should be significantly bolstered by that signing.  Their secondary took a hit with the injury to Louis Delmas, but they, like the Patriots, will rely heavily on their pass rush to mask a weaker secondary.  On the offensive side of the ball the Dolphins should have a lot of success. This will be a make or break year for Ryan Tannehill, as he has teetered on the edge of elite and good for the past couple of years.  Miami got rid Mike Wallace, which should help the offensive chemistry.  They will be relying on young, talented wide receivers, Davante Parker, Jarvis Landry, and Kenny Stills to help get the job done down in South Beach.  Lamar Miller should be the primary running back down there after a breakout season last year.  I would suspect the Dolphins will take a big step forward this year, especially with a seemingly weak schedule to start the season. If they can gain positive momentum early, they may be able to carry it into a difficult second half of the season.  
Prediction: 9-7, 2-4 Divisional

4. New York Jets (Last year: 4-12, 1-5)
Sorry Jets fans!  While I do think that this year's Jets team will take a step forward after a couple of off-season acquisitions and a solid draft, it is hard to fathom a giant step forward will be in order with Ryan Fitzpatrick (Sorry, Ryan) or Geno Smith playing quarterback.

Exhibit A

  The Jets did make some strides towards developing a stronger offense, bringing in Brandon Marshall, who had a down year last year after many very productive seasons, so they'll obviously hope he comes in and makes a big impact (I doubt it).  They will also be led by offensive coordinator Chan Gailey who does come with a good offensive mind.  He has experience coaching Fitzpatrick and will look to capitalize on Fitz's strengths until Smith comes back from his broken jaw.  In order for the Jets to find success offensively, a lot will ride on keeping a healthy team.  From a talent standpoint, their skill positions (other than QB) don't look terrible with Chris Ivory at running back and Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall splitting the majority of the catches.  Their schedule isn't the easiest, but if they are able to string a couple of wins together, maybe they can build from that.  One thing that they definitely have going for them is that they boast a very formidable defense.  Their biggest additions came with the signings of Darelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie to significantly improve a leaky secondary.  Revis proved last year that he is still one of the leagues best man-to-man defenders, shutting down some of the league's best wide receivers.

  They also have a very young, but talented front seven with Wilkerson, Richardson, and first-round draft pick Leonard Williams (if he gets healthy).  I believe that they will make strides towards a bright future, but with a tougher division and a difficult schedule, I don't think it is the Jets time to shine yet.
Prediction: 6-10, 1-5 Divisional

1Ballers isn't actually as bad as I thought it would be, it's quite entertaining (if you like football and Entourage, it's right down your alley).
2 Obviously I'm not going to get everything right and I haven't spend a million hours doing research, so take these with a grain of salt.