Wednesday, September 2, 2015

NFL 2015-16 Preview: AFC East

I know "they" call baseball America's past time, but let's be real, everyone knows that America is actually captivated by the NFL.  No matter how many mistakes the players and the commissioner make off the field, this organization is a cash cow that continues to grow in value and in viewership.  Whether we are watching because we have a stake in a fantasy league (or five), we love the game, or we enjoy the company and delicious snacks, Sundays are football days.  Now, there are only two weeks until the Patriots kick off against the Steelers and I am absolutely stoked.  Since leaving camp, I have stayed up to date with Hard Knocks (this year it's about the Texans, who are basically coached by the guys who have left New England), I've watched a least a little bit of nearly all of the preseason games (which is brutal at times), and I've even finished watching Ballers (a show starring Dwayne "the Rock" Johnson as a former NFL player turned financial manager on HBO).1    
With all that said, I am stoked for kick-off, and this is my preview on how things will play out this year!2
AFC EAST:
Overall: As with most years in the past decade and a half, it looks like this is the Patriots division to lose.  However, that statement is not to discount the other teams in this division, who all added significant pieces to their puzzles.  In the off-season, there were some coaching changes, some major player acquisitions, and some minor signings, but it is clear that the other three teams just want to find a way to finally dethrone the Patriots dynasty.
1. New England Patriots (Last year: 12-4, 4-2 divisional, Super Bowl Champs)
It is hard to pick against the New England Patriots to win the division.  During the off-season, they lost Vince Wilfork, Brandon Browner, Shane Vereen, Kyle Arrington, Alfonso Dennard, and most painfully Darelle Revis.  It is clear that the secondary is not nearly as strong as it was last year.  Fans will likely see a lot more zone coverage, as the Pats no longer have Revis and Browner as shut down man-to-man corners.  To make up for that, they will rely on a dominant front seven to make sure that quarterbacks aren't given as much time to get rid of the ball and force bad decisions.  On the offensive side, a lot of the early success will be dependent on the ultimate decision on the Deflategate decision and whether or not Brady's suspension is upheld.  There have been more than enough words spilled about that, so the only thing I will say is that the world needs to do a better job coming up with scandal titles... Watergate was an actual name of a place.  I believe that there are enough offensive weapons to allow Garoppolo to have success, but he is certainly no Tom Brady just yet.
As long as Rob Gronkowski stays healthy and the offensive line does not regress their well-oiled machine should roll on.  I would look for Brandon LaFell and Danny Amendola to fill larger roles this year as long as they can keep the same form that they had during last year's playoff run.
Prediction: 13-3, 5-1 Divisional



2. Buffalo Bills  (Last Year: 9-7, 4-2 Divisional)
After doing a lot of flip-flopping about who I think would get the number two spot in the AFC East, I have come to the conclusion that the Bills are a very likely candidate.  Their major offseason aqcuisitions this year were fiery head coach Rex Ryan and slippery running back LeSean McCoy.  Both of whom come to the team with very impressive resumes.  Despite being a Patriots fan (admittedly jumping on the bandwagon in the early 2000's) I recognize that Rex Ryan is without a doubt one of the best coaches in the NFL, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.  He is a defensive whiz and has fallen into the hands of a team with an absolutely stifling defense who ranked first in opponents average scoring per drive last year.  I can only imagine that they are just going to get better this year.  Their defensive line is arguably the best in football anchored by Kyle Williams, Marcell Dareus, and former number one pick Mario Williams, expect them to get to opposing quarterbacks a lot! 
If the offensive side of the ball is able to score some points, this team will definitely win some ball games.  Buffalo's big question mark on the offensive side of the ball will definitely be the the quarterback.  Ryan announced a couple of days ago that Tyrod Taylor will be the starter for the Bills for Week One.  Taylor has extremely limited time on the field in the NFL after having spent the last two years backing up Joe Flacco.  This certainly doesn't mean he can't play (Flacco is a really good quarterback).  The Bills will definitely look to use Taylor's threat of running to open up space for playmakers Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy and not become a one dimensional offense.  As I type this, I believe that I am talking myself into the Bills possibly making the playoffs this year.  A point of intrigue will be the use of Percy Harvin, who has a crazy good upside if he can get into a system that is able to utilize him correctly.
Prediction: 11-5, Divisional 4-2 

3. Miami Dolphins (Last year: 8-8, 3-3 Divisional)
The Miami Dolphins used their off season to drop a big wad of cash on defensive stalwart Ndamukong Suh, who has spent his early career sacking quarterbacks (before and after the whistle).

 Their below average defense should be significantly bolstered by that signing.  Their secondary took a hit with the injury to Louis Delmas, but they, like the Patriots, will rely heavily on their pass rush to mask a weaker secondary.  On the offensive side of the ball the Dolphins should have a lot of success. This will be a make or break year for Ryan Tannehill, as he has teetered on the edge of elite and good for the past couple of years.  Miami got rid Mike Wallace, which should help the offensive chemistry.  They will be relying on young, talented wide receivers, Davante Parker, Jarvis Landry, and Kenny Stills to help get the job done down in South Beach.  Lamar Miller should be the primary running back down there after a breakout season last year.  I would suspect the Dolphins will take a big step forward this year, especially with a seemingly weak schedule to start the season. If they can gain positive momentum early, they may be able to carry it into a difficult second half of the season.  
Prediction: 9-7, 2-4 Divisional

4. New York Jets (Last year: 4-12, 1-5)
Sorry Jets fans!  While I do think that this year's Jets team will take a step forward after a couple of off-season acquisitions and a solid draft, it is hard to fathom a giant step forward will be in order with Ryan Fitzpatrick (Sorry, Ryan) or Geno Smith playing quarterback.
Exhibit A
  The Jets did make some strides towards developing a stronger offense, bringing in Brandon Marshall, who had a down year last year after many very productive seasons, so they'll obviously hope he comes in and makes a big impact (I doubt it).  They will also be led by offensive coordinator Chan Gailey who does come with a good offensive mind.  He has experience coaching Fitzpatrick and will look to capitalize on Fitz's strengths until Smith comes back from his broken jaw.  In order for the Jets to find success offensively, a lot will ride on keeping a healthy team.  From a talent standpoint, their skill positions (other than QB) don't look terrible with Chris Ivory at running back and Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall splitting the majority of the catches.  Their schedule isn't the easiest, but if they are able to string a couple of wins together, maybe they can build from that.  One thing that they definitely have going for them is that they boast a very formidable defense.  Their biggest additions came with the signings of Darelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie to significantly improve a leaky secondary.  Revis proved last year that he is still one of the leagues best man-to-man defenders, shutting down some of the league's best wide receivers.
  They also have a very young, but talented front seven with Wilkerson, Richardson, and first-round draft pick Leonard Williams (if he gets healthy).  I believe that they will make strides towards a bright future, but with a tougher division and a difficult schedule, I don't think it is the Jets time to shine yet.
Prediction: 6-10, 1-5 Divisional

1Ballers isn't actually as bad as I thought it would be, it's quite entertaining (if you like football and Entourage, it's right down your alley).
2 Obviously I'm not going to get everything right and I haven't spend a million hours doing research, so take these with a grain of salt.

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