Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Western Conference Preview

This year’s NBA has been absolutely ludicrous.  Golden State broke a seemingly unbreakable record by tallying 73 wins, San Antonio tied the 1985-’86 Celtics record by winning 40 of their 41 home games,  Kobe Bryant capped off his retirement season by putting up 60 and leading his band of misfits to a comeback win,  Blake Griffin beat up an equipment manager (leading him to miss a good part of the season),  the Brooklyn Nets tanked the Boston Celtics into a (presumably) top 4 pick at this summer’s draft, and we were treated to one of the deepest rookie classes in a long time (see Towns, Porzingis, Booker, Winslow, Jokic, Turner, etc…).  All of this excitement and the post-season matchups have only just been decided.  These are my thoughts and picks for the Western Conference first round of the NBA playoffs. (I’m going to try to avoid specific stats, because I want to do as little research as possible and rely on my gut!)

Western Conference:


 #1 Golden State Warriors (73-9) vs. #8 Houston Rockets (41-41)
In year’s past, this matchup would have made me pause and look at all angles, but that isn’t the case this year.  Golden State is coming off of its record setting 73rd win, and while there were a couple of times they let off the gas this season (losses to Denver and Los Angeles), they have been truly dominant.  As I watched their game against the Spurs the other night, I marveled at how they created chaos on both ends of the court.  Their offensive chaos, leading to wide open three or simple lay-ups.  The defensive chaos causing the typically rock solid Spurs to take bad shots and give away simple turnovers.  Houston is a very pedestrian .500 team with many holes, expect Golden State to exploit them.  Houston did recover from an awful start to rally into the playoffs after a late season run, but didn’t once look like the team that made it to last year’s conference finals.  Playoff series typically are determined by one or two of the best players on the court, and in this series, it goes Curry, Harden, Thompson, and Green.  Golden State is just too organized and has too many weapons for Houston to be able to handle.  Congratulations Houston, you made the playoffs, but that is as far as you’ll go.
Prediction: Golden State in 4

#2 San Antonio Spurs (67-15) vs. #7 Memphis Grizzlies (42-40)
I can’t imagine a world where these two teams don’t play each other in the playoffs.  As a Spurs fan, there have been few postseasons in recent memories where these two teams didn’t face off.  This series, however, has a much different look.  Memphis has been fighting the injury bug all season, and pulled off a near miracle by playing consistent enough to make the playoffs without their low-post staple, Marc Gasol.  The Spurs train rolled along to an amazing 67-15 record, bolstered by an incredible 40-1 record at home.  While many of the faces are familiar in San Antonio, some of the veterans who have been dominant in years past (Duncan, Parker, Ginobili) have willingly taken a backseat role for the younger up and comers (Leonard and Aldridge), who have taken huge strides in their leadership this season.  Leonard is a real beast, showing his athleticism on both ends of the court by shutting down the other team’s best player every night while also being a focal point on offense.  Aldridge turns back time with his play, as he compliments his low post play with a near extinct brand of mid-range basketball.  It took a little while for the Spurs to find the right intricacies for their system, but it seems that they have found their stride.  Memphis has always been a tough out in the playoffs, but I just think the Spurs are too deep and experienced to lose this series.
Prediction: Spurs in 4



#3 Oklahoma City Thunder (55-27) vs. #6 Dallas Mavericks (42-40)
I love the way that year after year, Dallas does more with less than nearly every team in the NBA.  Carlisle is able to squeeze the most out of his players, Dirk keeps fighting off Father Time and adjusting his game to match his age, and Mark Cuban keeps on grinning in the stands.  Oklahoma City, I would argue, continues to do less with more.  Durant and Westbrook are two of the best players in the league, is it too much to ask to get to 60 wins?  I know that in the long run, the only thing that matters in regular season is getting into the playoffs, but they have the two best players on the court (in their prime) on a near nightly basis.  The clock is ticking for the Thunder to win a championship and if they make another early exit this year, Durant could be wearing green next year (let’s hope).  As much as I would love to see Dallas dig deep into their bag of tricks and make this a close series, I just think that the Thunder have too much overwhelming skill on their team.  I would not be surprised if Durant averaged 28 or more and Westbrook averaged a triple-double for as long as they are in the playoffs.  Dallas lost the battle of the emojis at the beginning of the season, and I have a strong feeling that they are going to lose this series as well.
Prediction: Thunder in 5


#4 Los Angeles Clippers (53-29) vs. #5 Portland Trailblazers (44-38)
Talk about two teams who do more with less (Portland) and less with more (LA)!  The Clippers are another team whose clock is very rapidly ticking away.  Last year may have been their best chance to make it to the Finals, and they somehow let the Rockets make an unbelievable comeback (led by Josh Smith) in the fourth quarter to let their stranglehold of the series slip away.  They return the same core as last year, but a little bit older and beaten up (see Clippers equipment manager….. erm… I mean Blake Griffin).  Chris Paul is still really good (one of my favorite NBA players of the last decade), but it seems to always be the same old song and dance with them.  The Trailblazers on the other hand have been one of the league’s biggest, most pleasant surprises.  Damian Lillard took his all-star snub personally which prompted him to hang up 51 points and a win on the Golden State gauntlet.  One would have thought that losing Wes Matthews and more importantly LaMarcus Aldridge would have sent this team reeling, but with the leadership of Lillard and coaching of Terry Stotts, they have found themselves in the fifth seed in a strong Western conference.  They have also received important contributions from CJ McCollum, who made a massive step forward this season.  I will be honest in saying, however, that I didn’t watch a single game played by the Blazers this season (darn West coast time).  While the Blazers had a great season, I don’t think that they have enough firepower and experience to compete with Chris Paul and the Clippers in the long run, and I believe the Clippers will take this series.

Prediction: Clippers in 6


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