NCAA Final Four: An outsider's observations

I don't think the NCAA could have written a better story lines for this years Final Four.  The schools represented are four of the most storied franchises in college basketball history.  Not only that, but one doesn't have to look far to find links that are sure to be brought up during the pregame broadcasts as well as during the games. Izzo vs. Coach K, a final four rematch, a potentially undefeated team, three of five Wooden finalists represented, a "Cinderella" story, it is truly the best case scenario for CBS and college basketball.  In a tournament that already has so many viewers, these match-ups are sure to attract even the most fair-weather fans.  The following are my thoughts and predictions of the upcoming matchups.

Game One: #7 Michigan State vs. #1 Duke
It seems like these two teams play against each other every year.  They have already played once this season, with Duke coming out on top.  As far as coaching goes, this game could not get any better.  I firmly believe that Coach K and Tom Izzo are the best coaches in college basketball and I only need to look at March to understand why.  Duke is a perennial contender for the national title, earning top three seeds nearly every single year.  Coach K (not going to try to spell out his actual last name) has been at the helm for over 1,000 wins and knows what it takes to win a championship (he has won four of them).  Michigan State (for as long as I have been watching) always seems to come into the tournament as an underrated team with something to prove.  Within Izzo's system, the Michigan St players often reach their peak playing performance once the tournament rolls around.  They also have a proven track record of playing deep into the tournament with Izzo leading the way (seven final fours and one national championship).  This year, he has been able to take an average regular season team all the way back to the final four.

Michigan State Spartans: 

Travis Trice

Out of all the final four teams, I have watched MSU the most in the tournament.  I have been really impressed with the way that they have won their games.  Due to their seeding, their road up to this point has been a difficult one.  They are probably the final four team with the least depth which could come back to bite them in the backside (especially if foul trouble becomes an issue).  When they played Louisville their half court offense was often stifled by the Cardinal's tough defense.  If Michigan State is able to force some Duke turnovers (Duke only had two the entire game against Gonzaga) they may be able to keep the game close.  Their size (or lack thereof) dictates their speedy style of play.  They look to push the pace as often as possible to create easy scores.  Michigan State is led by their standout guards Travis Trice (senior) and Denzel Valentine (junior).  I really like the tempo and decision making of Trice.  It is clear that he has played in big moments before, and that he will play a very important role in this game.  Michigan State is also a very strong three-point shooting team.  They have four guys (Forbes, Trice, Valentine, and Clark) who are very consistent from beyond the arc.  Valentine and Clark are both difficult matchups because they are able to spread the floor and hit shots from deep, or post up their defenders.  Michigan States big men are slightly undersized for their positions, but are very good at running the floor.  There were times against Louisville when their lack of size hurt negatively effected their rebounding numbers.  Senior Branden Dawson is a phenomenal athlete who is very effective on the fast break.  If MSU is able to get Dawson going early, their chances will improve dramatically.  On the flip side, if their bigs get into foul trouble, they may be in over their heads.  Finally, Michigan State has been a very poor free throw shooting team, with three high volume shooters averaging right around 50 percent (not good).  Although they have a couple of shooters who should be able to ice the games at the end, they will need to shoot better than average to keep the game close.

Duke Blue Devils:
Duke is really good.  They have arguably the best player in college (Jahlil Okafor) and potentially the best player in the tournament (Justise Winslow).  They are also in stiff competition with Wisconsin for the best hair-dos.  Unlike Michigan State, Duke comes in with a much younger roster.  Their two

L-R: Matt Jones, Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones, Justise Winslow

stars (Okafor and Winslow) are freshmen, and the majority of minutes are played by underclassmen (Greyson Allen, Tyus Jones and Matt Jones).  However, this lack of age does not translate into a shortage of skill.  Similar to many of Coach K's teams, they are a very good outside shooting team.  Led by senior Quinn Cook, they have several players who are high percentage shooters from the outside.  The inside game is anchored by Okafor who has a vast wealth of post moves for a youngster.  They have been able to lean on several different players to make big plays throughout the tournament, but Justise Winslow has played a massive role in getting them to this point.  In the last couple of games, Okafor has not been able to be the dominant presence down low due to very focused defensive schemes, so Winslow has been the feature guy.  If I was an NBA general manager, I would seriously think about picking Winslow first in the draft (if he enters the draft).  He is a lock down defender, knock down shooter and great finisher around the rim.  If any of the primary post players get into foul trouble, Duke will be reliant on Marshall Plumlee (the last in a seemingly never ending line of Plumlees).

Prediction:  I have tried to make myself dislike Duke during this tournament, but every time I watch them I am so impressed.  They have great hair, great shooters and star talent.  Although the coaching will be extremely strong on both sides, I think that Duke just has too much talent to lose this game.  Their depth, post-play and defensive ability will be too much for Michigan State.  My score predictions never come close, so I will skip that and leave you with this:

Quinn Cook cross-over

Game Two: #1 Kentucky vs. #1 Wisconsin
I am so excited for this game.  Last year, Kentucky broke Wisconsin's heart with this gut-wrenching ending. The two teams couldn't have a starker contrast.  Kentucky plays airtight defense (53.9 opponents ppg), while Wisconsin seemingly scores at will (72.8 ppg).  Wisconsin relies on an efficient system with an abundance of experience, while Kentucky relies on talented recruiting classes and relative inexperience.  Kentucky grinds teams on the post, while Wisconsin shoots (at least during the tournament) a very high percentage of threes.

Kentucky Wildcats:
First of all, Kentucky is currently undefeated (so they are obviously very good).  I have had a chance to watch a fair amount of Kentucky both before and during the tournament and one thing has been crystal clear: this team can defend.  Their defense is led by sophomore twins, Aaron and Andrew Harrison, and junior center Willie Cauley-Stein.  The Harrisons get into the face of opponents quickly and are able to stay on them like glue.  After watching them for a little while I came out thinking, there is no way that they can keep up this pace and aggression, but they never seemed to tire out.  Cauley-Stein is one of three seven-footers (yeah, three) on Kentucky's roster and is an elite rim defender in college basketball.  Their length (again, three seven footers) poses a distinct challenge to any team they play.  Their offense, however, has been a point of scrutiny.  With so much height, the floor spacing can become difficult for them and can lead to congestion inside.  

L-R: Harrison, Towns, Cauley-Stein

Their outside shooting, which should be used to unclog the low post, has been below average at times this season.  Their best offensive threat is the seven-foot freshman Karl Anthony Towns, who asserted his will against Notre Dame in the elite eight.  He is tall and strong, making him an extremely difficult match-up.  The Harrison twins have shown the ability to hit three point shots in big moments, but Tyler Ulis and Devin Booker are their most reliable shooters, hitting over 40 percent of their deep shots.  I assumed they were a poor free throw shooting team (something common for a Calipari coached team) but after looking at their numbers, they are very strong from the charity stripe.  The majority of their players shoot better than 70 percent.  This team can go ten players deep and played most of their games this season in five man shifts, therefore foul trouble should not be a major concern for them.

Wisconsin Badgers:   

Wisconsin is both a super skilled team and an extremely likeable team.  From an outsider's point of view, they have had the most fun of any team in the tournament.  They also have a strong balance of youth and experience (particularly players from last year's Final Four run).  Their best player is Frank Kaminsky, who has been nominated as one of the five best players in the country (not for his dancing alone).  He can play inside and outside, shooting 55-42-78% (FG-3p-FT), staggeringly refined numbers for a college player.  His second fiddle this year is forward Sam Dekker.  Dekker is easily recognizable with his old school flat top.  He sealed the game against Arizona with an in your face three point shot (one of five in that game).  He also has a history of making such audacious shots.  Wisconsin, contrary to their farm boy stereotype has one of the more prolific offenses in the country.  Although it's a very different and less intricate offense, their ball movement and desire to get high quality shots remind me of the San Antonio Spurs.  During the tournament, the Badgers have averaged over 80 points a game.  If they get into foul trouble, their lack of depth could become an issue, especially against a deep Kentucky side.  Their foul shooting is really good, with only one player who averages over 15 minutes a game averaging under 70 percent (and he's at 68%).

Prediction: Full disclosure, I do not like Kentucky.  I do not deny their talent, but I just have a lot of trouble getting behind the one-and-done factory of Coach Cal (I would prefer the NBA either takes away the rule or implements a longer college career with some sort of compensation plan from the NCAA).  I also picked Wisconsin to win it all (in at least one of my brackets).  In match-ups where it is a defensive juggernaut vs offensive juggernaut, history has told us that defense usually wins (except the Patriots this year, that was awesome).  My head tells me that Kentucky will win this game, but I am often one to follow my heart.  With all of that said, I believe that Wisconsin will win in a close one.  Kentucky has been in a lot of close calls this year and have dug themselves out every time.  Wisconsin is too experienced and hungry to let that happen to them.

How can you not love this team!?